After a dramatic slowdown in the 1970s, productivity growth in UK manufacturing in the 1980s returned to something like its pre-slowdown trend. This paper constructs a quarterly dynamic model of total factor productivity growth in UK manufacturing using cointegration techniques, correcting for a...

During extreme hyper-inflations productivity tends to fall dramatically.  Yet, in models of money demand in hyper-inflation variables such as real income has been given a somewhat passive role, either assuming it exogenous or to have a negligible role.  In this paper we use an empirical...

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. Our aim is to propose a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of post-war UK labour market. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model where...

In this paper we develop a time series model which allows long-term disequilibriums to have epochs of non-stationarity, giving the impression that long term relationships between economic variables have temporarily broken down, before they endogenously collapse back towards their long term...

A vector autoregressive model allowing for unit roots as well as explosive characteristic roots is developed. The Granger-Johansen representation shows that this results in processes with two common features: a random walk and an explosively growing process. Co-integrating and co-explosive...

This paper addresses the question of whether a conventional approach to cointegration is applicaple to the case where changes are allowed in the parameters for the short term dynamics. We reparametrise a vector autoregressive model such that the short-run parameters exhibiting changes at known...

A vector autoregression with deterministic terms and with no restrictions to its characteristic roots is considered. Strong consistency results and also some weak convergence results are given for a number of least squares statistics. These statistics are related to the denominator matrix of the...

We analyse a cointegrated VAR comprising UK data on consumer prices, unit labour costs, import prices and real consumption growth. The nominal variables, treated as I(2) here, form a linearly homogeneous relation, suggesting a transformation of the system to one comprising inflation and relative...

When analysing macroeconomic data it is often of relevance to allow for structural breaks in the statistical analysis. In particular, cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks could be of interest. We propose a cointegration model with piecewise linear trend and known break...