In general, Wald tests for the Granger non-causality in vector autoregressive (VAR) process are known to have non-standard asymptotic properties for cointegrated systems. However, that may have standard asymptotic properties depending on the rank of the submatrix of cointegration. In this paper,...

It is widely believed that taking cointegration and integration into consideration is useful in constructing long-term forecasts for cointegrated processes. This paper shows that imposing neither cointegration nor integration leads to superior long-term forecasts.

It is widely recognized that taking cointegration relationships into consideration is useful in forecasting cointegrated processes. However, there are a few practical problems when forecasting large cointegrated processes using the well-known vector error correction model. First, it is hard to...