The purpose of this paper is to propose a new likelihood-based panel cointegration test in the presence of a linear time trend in the data generating process. This new test is an extension of the likelihood ratio (LR) test of Saikkonen & Lütkepohl (2000) for trend-adjusted data to the panel...

This paper proposes a new likelihood-based panel cointegration rank test which extends the test of Örsal & Droge (2012) (henceforth Panel SL test) to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The dependence is modelled by unobserved common factors which affect the variables in each cross-section...

In this paper I analyse the effects of ignoring level shifts in the data generating process (DGP) on systems cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures suggested by Johansen (1988, 1995) and Saikkonen & Lütkepohl...

This paper investigates the properties of tests for asymmetric long-run adjustment which are often applied in empirical studies on asymmetric price transmissions. We show that substantial size distortions are caused by preconditioning the test on finding sufficient evidence for cointegration in...

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegrations. This is despite the fact that cointegration...

We introduce a multivariate multiplicative error model which is driven by componentspecific observation driven dynamics as well as a common latent autoregressive factor. The model is designed to explicitly account for (information driven) common factor dynamics as well as idiosyncratic effects...

This paper examines international equity market co-movements using time-varying copulae. We examine distributions from the class of Symmetric Generalized Hyperbolic (SGH) distributions for modelling univariate marginals of equity index returns. We show based on the goodness-of-fit testing that...

We consider two likelihood ratio tests, so-called maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, for the null of no cointegration when fractional cointegration is allowed under the alternative, which is a first step to generalize the so-called Johansen's procedure to the fractional cointegration case. The...

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...

Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing econometric tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a "treated" unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the...