This paper examines a point optimal invariant (POI) test for the null hypothesis of cointegration. Our test is different from Jansson's (2005) test in that we consider location invariance in wider directions and that we assume an unknown variance-covariance matrix for the error term, while it is...

This paper considers a vector autoregressive model or a vector error correction model with multiple structural breaks in any subset of parameters, using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique. The number of structural breaks is determined as a sort of model...

This paper investigates the expectations hypothesis for the Japanese term structure of interest rates using vector error correction models with multiple structural breaks, focusing on how the breaks affect volatility, risk premium and speed of the adjustment toward the equilibrium. Using...

The usual Wald test for the Granger non-causality in cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) processes is known to have the asymptotically non-standard distribution. There have been proposed a few alternative (inefficient) methods which give the asymptotically standard distribution. However,...

In this paper, we propose a new approach to test the hypothesis of long-run Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems. We circumvent the problem of singularity of the variance-covariance matrix associated with the usual Wald type test by proposing a generalized inverse procedure, and an...

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one....

In an influential paper, Engel and West (2005) claim that the near random-walk behavior of nominal exchange rates is an equilibrium outcome of a variant of present-value models when economic fundamentals follow exogenous first-order integrated processes and the discount factor approaches one....