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This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 14 Latin American countries between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cycles' turning points. Results...
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Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of...
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In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...
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