This article derives a group of key-maturity zero-coupon yields (or spot rates) for the Chinese inter-bank Treasuries market by use of unsmoothed Fama-Bliss bootstrapping method. With the results of summary statistics and principal component analysis, we surprisingly find there are wide...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...