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In this paper, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...
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We provide a comparison of several GARCH and stochastic volatility models for forecasting the risk of cryptocurrencies. It turns out that the widely used GARCH(1,1) does not provide accurate risk predictions. In contrast, adding t-distributed innovations or allowing for regime changes improves...
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