Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Understanding the formation of consumer inflation expectations is considered crucial for managing monetary policy. This paper investigates how consumers form and update their inflation expectations using a unique “information” experiment embedded in a survey. We first elicit respondents’...

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

In “Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?,” Dean Croushore uses the Philadelphia Fed’s real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data — make...