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Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers … of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on … economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria …
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In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
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performance in forecasting macroeconomic variables and in matching survey forecasts. Our results indicate a great degree of …. Calibrations to match survey forecasts are found to be lower than those derived according to the forecasting performance …
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best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
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