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Probabilistic reasoning in economic decisions : belief formation, inference judgements, and retirement
Kieren, Pascal - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012406046
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Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria
Ibrahim, Adamu; Bawa, Sani; Abdullahi, Ismaila S.; … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 285-300
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers … of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on … economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
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Information aggregation in democratic mechanisms
Britz, Volker; Gersbach, Hans - 2016 - This version: January 22, 2016
We examine whether and how democratic procedures can achieve socially desirable public good provision in the presence of profound uncertainty about the benefits of public goods, i.e., when citizens are able to identify the distribution of benefits only if they aggregate their private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444451
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Vertrauen und Konstruktion von Wirklichkeiten : eine epistemologisch fundierte Konzeption mit Implikationen für die ökonomische Theoriebildung
Vollmar, Bernhard H. - 2007 - 1. Aufl.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003586496
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490362
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - 2014 - This version: December 3, 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011492072
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Partisan bias and expressive voting
Robbett, Andrea; Matthews, Peter Hans - In: Journal of public economics 157 (2018), pp. 107-120
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012035096
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Keynes as the first behavioral economist : the case of the attribute-substitution heuristic
Koutsobinas, Thodoris T. - In: Journal of post-Keynesian economics : JPKE 37 (2014/2015) 2, pp. 337-355
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618199
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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806603
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Manipulated electorates and information aggregation
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: The review of economic studies : RES 87 (2020) 2, pp. 997-1033
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197710