This article assesses economic growth in the context of consumer saturation. We show that consumer based economies tend to suffer from demand saturation after an initial and prolonged period of growth. However, structural demand saturation irrevocably triggers a Minsky-type super cycle that is...

The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 witnessed a marked contraction in US consumption spending that had hitherto been boosted by historically high levels of household debt-financing. These events question the validity of conventional models of consumption based on the life-cycle...

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by...

This study extends the hybrid version of the baseline New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents who may adopt various forecast heuristics. With a focus on consumer expectations, we identify the most appropriate pairs of forecast heuristics that can lead to an equivalent fit to the data...

In this study, we analyze the macroeconomic dynamics under various shocks in two competing frameworks. Given the baseline New-Keynesian model, we compare the impulse response functions that stem from the hybrid version under rational expectations with the ones obtained in the forward-looking...

Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by...

Using monthly regional data on air quality and large retail store sales in Korea, we empirically examine the effect of air pollution on retail sales. We account for regional heterogeneity in air pollution and control for various macroeconomic and climatic factors that can affect retail sales. We...

Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, p references, and, hence, spending....

We exploit a quasi-experiment to provide new evidence on the magnitude of the housing wealth effect. We estimate an immediate shock of approximately -15% to house prices close to one of Stockholm's airports after its operations were unexpectedly continued as a result of political bargaining....