This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate … inflation relative to aggregate infation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether … persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged within samples, the average persistence of disaggregate inflation …

Whittle estimation method, the research examines the longmemory properties of headline inflation through monthly data from … January 1996 to January 2023. The study expands upon existing knowledge of inflation persistence by exploring its changes and … the various patterns of inflation persistence in Europe. The findings reveal significant differences in the persistence of …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …

We estimate an empirical model of inflation that exploits a Phillips curve relationship between a measure of … unemployment and a subaggregate measure of inflation (services). We generate an aggregate inflation forecast from forecasts of the … statistics for models that exploit relationships between services inflation and the unemployment rate. In addition, models of …

increase according to trends in productivity and the target inflation rate of the central bank. Wage developments without …

In this paper we model monthly UK inflation and find that there is some small but significant autocorrelation …, particularly at 12 months. We find that this autocorrelation in monthly inflation leads to significant persistence in the headline … annual inflation figure. A one-off shock to monthly inflation will have an effect on the headline figure equal to 10% of the …

Consumer Price Index. We find that online price indices anticipate changes in official inflation trends more than one month in … only predict the contemporaneous inflation rate. Our baseline specification also outperforms statistical benchmark … States. Similarly, our quarterly forecast for the US inflation rate consistently outperforms the Survey of Professional …

relationship between inflation and unemployment is nonlinear. Using aggregate data we are unable to reject a linear relationship … low compared to when it is high. Nevertheless the simple nonlinear Phillips curves used here suggest a core CPI inflation …

the tradeable sector. They also suggest that the sales destination matters: wage growth contributes to domestic inflation … for goods but not to export inflation. Finally, we also provide evidence of an increase in the wage-price pass …

achieved by maximization of utility subject to budget constraint. An increase in inflation that is not accompanied by … about inflation which in turn requires appropriate modelling of inflationary behavior. This study assesses efficacies of … different versions of new Keynesian Phillips curve for capturing dynamics of CPI inflation. Estimation of different formulations …