Numerous studies have documented the failure of consumption-based pricing models to explain observed patterns in stock and bond returns. This failure has sometimes been attributed to frictions, transaction costs or durability. If such frictions are important, they should primarily affect the...

This paper studies the role of detrended wealth in predicting stock returns. We call a transitory movement in wealth one that produces a deviation from its shared trend with consumption and labor income. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these trend deviations in wealth are...

Remarks at Fordham University's Gabelli School of Business, Bronx, New York.

Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

Remarks before the Bronx Chamber of Commerce at the New York Botanical Garden, Bronx, New York.

Remarks at New York University's Stern School of Business, New York City.