Our research estimates Covid-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July 27, 2020, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of July 27, 2020, the cumulative confirmed number of cases was...

In an optimizing model of epidemics several externalities arise when agents shield to avoid infection. Optimizing behaviour delays herd immunity but also reduces overall infections to approximately the minimum consistent with herd immunity. For reasonable parameter values, and with no vaccine,...

Public health experts have been predicting imminent threat of pandemic influenza. The latest US preparedness plans use the single statistic of case-fatality as the basis to evaluate any new threats. On this basis, Avian flu (H5N1) has been declared the single pandemic threat of concern, such...

In evaluating the appropriate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a key parameter is the rate of substitution between mortality risk and wealth or income, conventionally summarized as the value per statistical life (VSL). For the United States, VSL is estimated as approximately $10 million, which...

Public health experts caution that global warming increases the likelihood of novel coronaviruses and amplifies their impacts. Such contagions are virtually unique in their ability to inflict catastrophic worldwide harm. Even more alarming is the forecast that future coronavirus pandemics will...

Hard lockdowns have left policymakers to face the ethical dilemma of choosing between saving lives and saving the economy. However, massive testing could have helped to respond more effectively to COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we study the trade-off between infection control, lockdown and...

Epidemic analysis by dynamical modelling is a reliable and insightful way to analyse epidemiological data in order to extract key indicators about the outbreak and to make predictions on its future course. We develop a generalised SEIR model based on Peng et al. 2020 and estimate it on a...

In 2021, the Biden Administration issued mandates requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and contractors and for some healthcare and private sector workers. Although these mandates have been subject to legal challenges and some have been halted or delayed, rigorous appraisal...