In this note, we gauge the likely impact of the Delta variant on global GDP growth in the second half of this year. To do so, we use the methodology described in Kamin and Kearns (2021), "Pandemic Prospects and the Global Economic Recovery," to compare projections for global GDP based on the...

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of a key measure of economic activity – industrial production – over the course of 2020. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic...

The likely impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and local government revenues is increasingly well understood.

The existence of a home court advantage is one of the most durable empirical patterns in all of sports. Yet, the sociological and psychological mechanisms explaining its strength and persistence remain a mystery in large part because of well-known challenges with statistical identification. We...

This paper develops an empirical model of the economic impact of COVID-19 and uses it to gauge how the evolution of the pandemic will affect the global economic recovery.

A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. File-URL https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/non-pharmaceutical-interventions-and-mortality-in-us-cities-during-the-great-influenza-pandemic-1918-1919/

Analysis of data on bank-specific average PPP loan size produces results that are inconsistent with a loan demand explanation. Absent good measures of PPP loan demand, the source of the observed differences in bank PPP loan activity cannot be definitively identified using bank regulatory data alone.

COVID-19 relief legislation offers a unique setting to study how political representation shapes the distribution of federal assistance to state and local governments. We provide evidence of a substantial small-state bias: an additional Senator or Representative per million residents predicts an...

The emerging-market and developing economies face a multitude of grave challenges as they confront the COVID-19 pandemic, including a critical lack of budgetary space. Observers have highlighted the need to bolster the international financial institutions' lending capacity in the event of a...

Gating indicators recommended by CDC for phased reopening following COVID-19 shutdowns include "sustained decreases" or a "downward trajectory...over a 14-day period" in public health statistics.