This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about futuregovernment bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and theUnited Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondentsconsider the expected evolution of the fiscal...

This paper assesses how financial market participants form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the UK between January 1993 and December 2011, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal...

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch). Our results show: significant responses of government bond yield...