beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …

We study how credit supply shocks in the US, the euro area and Japan are transmitted to other economies. We use the … effect of reducing credit supply to the private sector. We find that negative US credit supply shocks have stronger negative … effects on domestic and foreign GDP, compared to credit supply shocks from the euro area and Japan. Domestic and foreign …

stressed credit markets and confirms their superior performance in explaining the behavior of Credit Default Swap rates for the …