We model aggregate loss rates on credit portfolios dynamically using a default intensity approach. The default intensity we employ is allowed to depend on both observable macroeconomic variables and unobserved frailties. We use the model to extract measures of the credit cycle from US bank...

Credit default swaps ("CDSs") were widely blamed as a primary cause of the recent financial crisis; CDSs fomented panic as the price of credit protection spiked and contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to bail out American International Group. To reduce the likelihood that credit...

This research examines the impacts of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) on bank performance in general, and in particular how their impacts can be moderated by bank regulation strictness and investor protection quality embedded in different institutional environments. Using 2398 observations from...

This paper discusses the concept of leverage, its components and how to measure and monitor it. It proposes an innovative approach to assessing leverage based on flows using the concept of a marginal leverage ratio, which reveals the leverage related to new activities, as a valuable supplement...

This paper questions the relevance of using only the 5-year maturity CDS spreads to examine the CDS market response to the disclosure of a regulatory stress test results. Since the stress testing exercises are performed on short-term forward-looking stressed scenarios (1 to 3 years), we assume...

We study the effect of rollover risk on the risk of default using a comprehensive database of U.S. industrial firms during 1986–2013 This article is the most thoroughgoing empirical research to date to support the existence of a rollover risk effect on the risk of default. A one standard...

We examine the mechanism through which a financial crisis affects the default risk of real economy firms. Specifically, firms with strong dependence on bank financing suffer higher increases in default risk than firms with no such dependence. Conversely, firms relying solely on financing from...

This paper investigates the impact of stress testing results on bank's equity and CDS performance using a large sample of twelve tests from the US CCAR and the European EBA regimes in the time period from 2010 to 2018. We find that passing banks experience positive abnormal equity returns and...

This paper investigates the impact of stress testing results on bank's equity and CDS performance using a large sample of twelve tests from the US CCAR and the European EBA regimes in the time period from 2010 to 2018. We find that passing banks experience positive abnormal equity returns and...