We develop an operational model of information contagion and show how it may be integrated into a mainstream, top-down, stress-testing framework to quantify systemic risk. The key transmission mechanism is a two-way interaction between the beliefs of secondary market investors and the...

The COVID-19 pandemic represented the emergence of an enormous, systemic, and largely un-anticipated economic risk. It upended entire industries on a global scale, shuttered millions of businesses by government order, and left millions more struggling to adapt to unforeseen and rapidly changing...