Exploiting information contained in the term-structure of sovereign credit spreads, we estimate time-varying fiscal limits – defined as the maximum outstanding debt that can credibly be covered by future primary budget surpluses. Our approach is based on a novel sovereign credit risk model...

Emerging market interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that a baseline model with endogenous sovereign default risk can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, the...

Emerging market interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that a baseline model with endogenous sovereign default risk can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, the...

The paper investigates the risky sovereign spreads and the CDS-Bond basis of a country following a fixed exchange rate under a Currency Board Arrangement (CBA). The particular monetary regime affects significantly the mechanics of the bond market and needs a special investigation. We start by...

The paper considers a no-arbitrage setting for pricing and relative value analysis of risky sovereign bonds. The typical case of an emerging market country (EM) that has bonds outstanding both in foreign hard currency (Eurobonds) and local soft currency (treasuries) is inspected. The resulting...

We propose a coherent framework using support vector regression (SRV) for generating and ranking a set of high quality models for predicting emerging market sovereign credit spreads. Our framework adapts a global optimization algorithm employing an hv-block cross-validation metric, pertinent for...

This paper revisits the discussion about the role that fundamentals play in asset prices using sovereign credit spread data. We augment the standard macroeconomic proxy set by text-based measures of country and global fundamentals from a database of Reuters news articles between 2007 and 2016....

Leading into a debt crisis, interest rate spreads on sovereign debt rise before the economy experiences a decline in productivity, suggesting that news about future economic developments may play an important role in these episodes. In a VAR estimation, a news shock has a larger contemporaneous...

This study compares credit spreads and the pricing of securitization and covered bonds. Using a sample of 18,309 bonds issued by European banks in the 2000-2016 period, we find that asset-backed securities (ABS), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), public covered bonds (PCB), and mortgage covered...