Financial institutes have to be in a position to describe and to analyze the networks of obligors in their credit portfolios. If one obligor defaults who is numerously connected with other obligors in the portfolio there can be effects of credit contagion. We suggest a graph-based modeling of...

We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

In this paper we separate the total stock return into its continuous and jump component to test whether stock return predictability should be attributed to omitted risk factors or behavioral finance theories. We extend results from the US market to the Spanish stock market, which, despite being...

We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss...

Banks faced many difficulties related to lax credit standards. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and it should maintain credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. However, the problem arises when standards are...

In this paper, we propose an inflated mixture model to deal with multimodality in loss given default data. We propose a mixed of degenerate distributions, to handle zeros and ones excess, with a mixture of to-be-chosen bounded distributions for non-zeros and non-ones proportions. By applying the...

The netting of OTC derivatives trades, known as 'compression', reduces systemic risk in financial markets by minimising counterparty exposures between large financial institutions, in particular the large dealer banks. We present here a framework for compression in the OTC derivatives market for...

The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to...