Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...

Firm-level default models are important for bottomup modeling of the default risk of corporate debt portfolios. However, models in the literature typically have several strict assumptions which may yield biased results, notably a linear effect of covariates on the log-hazard scale, no...

In recent years hazard models, using both market and accounting information, have become state of the art in predicting firm bankruptcies. However, a comprehensive test comparing their performance against the traditional accounting-based approach or the contingent claims approach is missing in...

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of credit default swap (CDS) spreads from a sample of 45 listed European banks over the 2004-2010 period. We use variables related to accounting- and market-based data, an indicator of liquidity in the CDS market and several variables from the...

Prior studies show that a lender's incentive to monitor a client's activities declines after receiving insurance on its loan via a credit default swap (CDS). We examine whether this altered debtor-creditor relation affects borrowers' investment activities. We hypothesize that the borrower...

Objective – The purpose of this study is to construct a business failure classification model that may be reliably applied to companies in the manufacturing sector. The model will be used to improve the predictive abilities for companies with different financial, business and operating...

Under the IFRS 9 impairment model, entities must estimate the PD (Probability of Default) for all financial assets (and other elements) not measured at fair value through profit or loss. There are several methodologies for estimating this PD from market or historical information. However, in...

Using the state-level adoption of anti-recharacterization laws (ARLs), this paper examines how strengthening the rights of some creditors affects other creditors’ claims. The adoption of an ARL significantly increases the rights of securitization creditors by denying bankruptcy court judges’...

This paper uses a sample of 2,186 credit default swap (CDS) spreads quoted in the European market during the period 2002–2009 to empirically analyze which model – accounting- or market-based – better explains corporate credit risk. We find little difference in the explanatory power of...

We investigate non-financial variables for predicting bankruptcy in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The variables encompass management, board and ownership structures and are sourced from universally accessible information, rendering them available to all stakeholders and allowing for...