Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...

Firm-level default models are important for bottomup modeling of the default risk of corporate debt portfolios. However, models in the literature typically have several strict assumptions which may yield biased results, notably a linear effect of covariates on the log-hazard scale, no...

We examine how equity-market frictions that restrict pessimistic trading, such as short-sale constraints, affect assessments of default risk. We find that these frictions decrease the usefulness of equity-market variables for identifying defaulting firms but increase their usefulness for...

This paper uses a sample of 2,186 credit default swap (CDS) spreads quoted in the European market during the period 2002–2009 to empirically analyze which model – accounting- or market-based – better explains corporate credit risk. We find little difference in the explanatory power of...

I examine how credit reporting affects where firms access credit and how lenders contract with them. I use within firm-time and lender-time tests that exploit lenders joining a credit bureau and sharing information in a staggered pattern. I find information sharing reduces relationship-switching...

Under the IFRS 9 impairment model, entities must estimate the PD (Probability of Default) for all financial assets (and other elements) not measured at fair value through profit or loss. There are several methodologies for estimating this PD from market or historical information. However, in...

We examine the relationship between corporate governance and default risk for a sample of firms cited in the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAERs). Using hazard analysis of actual default incidence and OLS regressions of a continuous...

We examine the determinants of events of default clauses in syndicated loan and bond contracts, provisions that allow lenders to request the repayment of principal and to terminate lending commitments. We document significant variation in the use of default clauses and their restrictiveness...

This article attempts to identify the default risk measure which best reflects the idiosyncratic context of public family firms. Seven accounting- and market-based measures are compared over a sample of 981 US family and non-family firms for the period 2000-2016. The results show that the...

Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...