Данная часть завершает серию консультационных публикаций Деана Фантаццини на тему «Эконометрический анализ финансовых данных в задачах управления риском». В...

In this paper, we perform analysis of systemic risk in the financial and energy sector in Europe. In our investigation, we work with daily time series of CDS spreads. We employ factor copula model with GAS dynamics of Oh and Patton (2016) for estimation purposes of dependency structures between...

In this article we introduce a new framework for counterparty risk model backtesting based on Bayesian methods. This provides a conceptually sound approach for analyzing model performance which is also straightforward to implement. We show that our methodology provides important advantages over...

This paper answers two research questions: what is the appropriate modeling tool for NPL study? and whether the NPL rates in Thailand show improving or deteriorating trend? NPL is of interests to management decision makers because it serves as an indicator for assessing risk in commercial loans....

This paper describes the modelling of spread risk, in case of missing or illiquid market data, by using a subset of good quality liquid bond/credit default swap (CDS) spread time series. The proposed method links copula simulation to the actual historical spread dynamics. This is important when...

Forecasts, models and stress tests are important tools for policymakers and business planners. Recent developments in these related spheres have seen greater emphasis placed on stress tests from a regulatory perspective, while at the same time forecasting performance has been criticized. Given...

We introduce a novel simulation-based network approach, which provides full-edged distributions of potential interbank losses. Based on those distributions we propose measures for (i) systemic importance of single banks, (ii) vulnerability of single banks, and (iii) vulnerability of the whole...

In this paper we develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework to compute the Credit Expected Shortfall in an explit if form through Kumaraswamy (1980) distribution with both default rate and recovery rate time-varying. The default rate is assumed to follow a square root process, and...