Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital...

Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen von Finanzmarktkrisen anhand entsprechender Vorkommnisse in Thailand, Mexiko und Tschechien, um risikoreiche Konstellationen für Emerging Markets zu identifizieren. Als Modell wurde der Ansatz von Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996) gewählt, der durch...

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis...

In this paper, I give a detailed account of the creation and the evolution of Korea Investment Corporation (KIC) – a sovereign wealth fund established in 2005 by the Korean government. In doing so, I highlight three of its unique features. First, the case of KIC effectively shows the problem...

In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined ("twin") currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to...

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis...

We tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic models. Our results...

This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...

Der Beitrag analysiert die Argentinien-Krise, vergleicht die makroökonomische Entwicklung von Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko seit der Mexiko-Krise und entwickelt Indikatoren zur Beurteilung der Entwicklungschancen dieser Länder. Für Argentinien wie für Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko...

Restrictions on international capital transactions and other payments are usually designed to limit volatile short-term capital flows ( hot money ) and stabilize the exchange rate. Their imposition, however, may have the opposite effect by inadvertently signaling the continuation of...