Exchange-rate-based stabilisations, even if successful, usually lack credibility initially. This is reflected in high (ex post) real interest rates and some degree of real exchange rate appreciation. Empirical observation suggests that wage inflation declines smoothly over time whilst interest...

A second-generation model of currency crises is combined with a standard banking model. In a pegged exchange rate regime, after funds have been committed to the banks, news arrives about the quality of the banks' assets and about the exchange rate fundamentals. A run on the banks may cause a...

In currency crises, unlike in orderly devaluations, the financial markets dominate events. Previous research has shown that the output effects of a crisis tend to be worse in emerging markets, and the current account adjustment greater. This paper examines the evolution of a wider range of...