In recent years, a number of studies have analyzed the experiences of a broad range of industrial economies during periods when their current account deficits have narrowed. Such studies identified systematic aspects of external adjustment, but it is unclear how good a guide the experience of...

In this paper we develop a modified "early warning system" (EWS) approach to identifying the roles of domestic and external factors in Latin America's crises. Several probit models of balance-of-payments crises, based on different identified sets of crisis dates, were estimated for six Latin...

In this paper, a modified "early warning system" (EWS) approach is developed to identify the roles of domestic and external factors in emerging market crises. Several probit models of financial crises were estimated for 26 emerging market countries. These models were used to identify the...