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After widening substantially in the period preceding the global financial crisis, current account imbalances across the world have contracted to a significant extent. This paper analyzes the factors underlying this process of external adjustment. It finds that countries whose pre-crisis current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293775
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790484
The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142197
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011610578
In this paper, I find (1) that Japan showed massive and persistent current account surpluses from at least 1981 and … until at least 2011, (2) that Professor Ronald McKinnon was correct, at least in the case of Japan, and that these large and … persistent current account surpluses were due primarily to Japan's large and persistent IS imbalances (the excess of saving over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011311745
We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838007
The global economy has experienced considerable turbulence since 2007. The financial crisis has been viewed as the trigger for a prolonged period of economic decline. This decline remains an issue for all member states of the European Union, the eurozone and beyond. We argue genesis of this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449877
Germany is an undervaluation regime, a regime that steers economic behavior towards deterioration of the real exchange rate and thereby towards export surpluses. This regime has brought the eurozone to the brink of collapse. But it is much older than the euro. It was established during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963824
France lost ground in goods trade and services recorded just a slight increase in global market shares. The slight … improvement of the trade deficit seen in 2012 may suggest a change in trend, although it is still too early to determine. Past …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244236
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636238