La evidencia empírica para Colombia muestra relaciones tanto positivas como negativas entre el crecimiento del producto y empleo, a diferencia de lo encontrado en economías desarrolladas como la de los Estados Unidos. El presente trabajo usa modelos VAR y de Equilibrio General Dinámico y...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...

This document presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rule of thumb (Non-Ricardian) agents and both nominal price and wage rigidities. The model follows closely that of Galí et al. (2004) and expands it to include a second way form of heterogeneity (besides the...

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But thesemodels typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs.How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early...

En este artículo se propone un método numérico para la calibración de un modelode equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE). Esencialmente, éste consisteen utilizar un algoritmo híbrido de optimización, primero para encontrar un estadoestacionario del modelo, y luego para...

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, theyhave to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecastsfrom external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial...