In this paper, I study the impact of the domestic and external shocks on the Romanian economy. I use an open economy DSGE model and estimate it for the Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. The impact of the domestic shocks is moderate but not persistent. The Euro Area demand and interest...

In this paper I use an open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. Based on estimation I derive a smoothed estimation of the output gap. I compare the results with those from standard procedures to estimate the output gap, the Hodrick Prescott filter,...

In this study, I estimate a monetary DSGE model using Bayesian techniques and I use the estimated model to forecast the Romanian GDP in the long run. For the 2008-2010 period, the forecasts with the model confirm the present consensus among the economists about a growth potential of 5 to 6% for...

In this paper I estimate a New Keynesian Model with sticky prices for the Romanian economy for the period 1991-2002, using quarterly data. The estimation was made in Dynare using the Bayesian approach. The degree of the price stickiness is moderate. The model makes good predictions in terms of...

In this study I apply a simple DSGE model to forecast the quarterly Romanian GDP. The forecast is based on the posterior distribution of the model parameters resulted from the Bayesian estimation. The forecast for the 2006-2007 period shows that the realized GDP is within the confidence interval...