Showing 1 - 10 of 2,472
This paper aims to propose a new measure of exchange market pressure for countries operating in hard peg regimes, such as currency unions, currency boards or full dollarization. We use a general model of currency crisis to derive a sustainability index based upon the relationship between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108459
In the literature on currency and banking crises it has become the standard procedure to distinguish pure currency crises, pure banking crises and combined ("twin") currency and banking crises. We show theoretically and empirically that a similar differentiation should be chosen with regard to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009746211
Using data from 40 nations, we obtain new stylized facts regarding the impact of political leanings of the ruling government on sovereign debt yields and fiscal policy. Left-wing governments' yields are 166 basis points higher and 23% more volatile than yields of right-wing governments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912092
This paper investigates and models the yield spreads of sovereign debt of Eurozone countries by means of macroeconomic … fundamentals. In particular, this paper shows that the change in the volatility of terms-of-trade of trade outside the Eurozone was … terms-of-trade in this manner for the Eurozone, and presents important findings for fixed income investors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948379
Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977831
related to a more fundamentally economic reality: structural heterogeneity among the Eurozone countries which was aggravated … specialization among Eurozone countries that, contrary to the expectations of public policy designers, resulted in an increased … sample of eight countries: the four largest economies in the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and Spain; and four smaller …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011787
This paper uses a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's conventional monetary policy. First, our results show that in the countries most affected by the crisis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023482
The European sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the GIPS countries after 2008. We present a theory, which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in Southern Europe between 1998 and 2012. Our key theoretical argument is related...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027003
This paper takes stock of the lessons from past crises and the history of other unions to prioritize possible reforms of the euro. The distortions facing the euro include structural challenges in the labor and product markets, and financial distortions. While both structural and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079827
In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recession, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013058811