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Learning and dynamic choices under uncertainty : from weighted regret and rejoice to expected utility
Zagonari, Fabio - 2016
probability estimations and outcome preferences according to the learning models suggested by neuroscience (i.e., adaptive … learning aimed at reducing surprises), and analogous to Bayesian updating. The search context is derived from experimental … economics, whereas the learning framework is borrowed from theoretical economics. Analytical results show that obstinate and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011703316
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Tardy Learning, Cognitive Biases, and SMEs' Decision-Making
Zhou, Ye; Huang, Difang; Chen, Muzi; Wang, Yunlong; … - 2022
rigid response to learning new information in the huge unexpected changes. Specifically, before the exogenous shock, overall … bias in managerial cognition diminished when uncertainty decreases. We show the existence of moderates and an anchoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013298188
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Calibration of quantum decision theory, aversion to large losses and predictability of probabilistic choices
Vincent, Sabine; Jukalov, Vjačeslav I.; Kovalenko, Tatyana - 2016
We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 choices between two lotteries (two "prospects") presented in 91 random pairs made by 142 subjects offered at two separated times. First, we quantitatively account for the fraction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615
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Estimation and comparison between rank-dependent expected utility, cumulative prospect theory and quantum decision theory
Ferro, Giuseppe; Kovalenko, Tatyana; Sornette, Didier - 2021
We propose a new parametrization of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), based on Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU). Using experimental data made of choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare QDT with "classical" decision theories, RDU and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). At the aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612940
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Regret-sensitive treatment decisions
Fujii, Yoichiro; Osaki, Yusuke - In: Health economics review 8 (2018) 14, pp. 1-8
The threshold approach to medical decision-making, in which treatment decisions are made based on whether the probability of sickness exceeds a predetermined threshold, was introduced by (Pauker and Kassirer, N Engl J Med 293:229-234, 1975) and (Pauker and Kassirer, N Engl J Med 302:1109-1116,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011896508
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Stochastic representation decision theory : how probabilities and values are entangled dual characteristics in cognitive processes
Ferro, Giuseppe M.; Sornette, Didier - 2020
Humans are notoriously bad at understanding probabilities, exhibiting a host of biases and distortions that are context dependent. This has serious consequences on how we assess risks and make decisions. Several theories have been developed to replace the normative rational expectation theory at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219210
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Learning and Dynamic Choices Under Uncertainty : From Weighted Regret and Rejoice to Expected Utility
Zagonari, Fabio - 2016
probability estimations and outcome preferences according to the learning models suggested by neuroscience (i.e., adaptive … learning aimed at reducing surprises), and analogous to Bayesian updating. The search context is derived from experimental … economics, whereas the learning framework is borrowed from theoretical economics. Analytical results show that obstinate and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014123770
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Social anchor effects in decision-making under ambiguity
Lahno, Amrei M. - 2014
dynamics considerably differ between gain and loss domains. For gains, learning to be comparably ambiguity averse increases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364762
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When rational decision-making becomes irrational : a critical assessment and re-conceptualization of intuition effectiveness
Julmi, Christian - In: Business research 12 (2019) 1, pp. 291-314
Intuition can lead to more effective decision-making than analysis under certain conditions. This assumption can be regarded as common sense. However, dominant research streams on intuition effectiveness in decision-making conceptualize intuition inadequately, because intuition is considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029308
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Evaluating case-based decision theory : predicting empirical patterns of human classification learning
Pape, Andreas D.; Kurtz, Kenneth J. - In: Games and economic behavior 82 (2013), pp. 52-65
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010239062