Showing 1 - 10 of 23,687
We propose a new parametrization of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), based on Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU). Using … experimental data made of choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare QDT with "classical" decision theories, RDU and Cumulative … decision makers as either RDU, RDU-based QDT, CPT or CPT-based QDT. Our major findings are the following: the quantum …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612940
are information seeking otherwise. Because belief updating depends on the decision problem in which new information is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557745
Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert … decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of … an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514496
This paper focuses on information acquisition and individual decision making in ambiguous situations and presents a …, subjects can reduce or even eliminate the ambiguity and turn the decision situation into one of risk. Under the assumption that … an ambiguity averse subject should reduce ambiguity within a decision process we predicted that these subjects would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010188142
The results of an experiment extending Ellsberg's setup demonstrate that attitudes towards ambiguity and compound uncertainty are closely related. However, this association is much stronger when the second layer of uncertainty is subjective than when it is objective. Provided that the compound...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011457763
(subjective) probabilities weight multiplicatively the utilities of the alternatives offered to the decision maker, although … evidence suggest that probability weights and utilities are often not separable in the mind of the decision maker. In this … context, we introduce a simple and efficient framework on how to describe the inherently probabilistic human decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219210
We report a portfolio-choice experiment that enables us to estimate parametric models of ambiguity aversion at the level of the individual subject. The assets are Arrow securities that correspond to three states of nature, where one state is risky with known probability and two states are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757224
This paper analyzes dynamic choice for ambiguity-sensitive decision makers. It demonstrates that unambiguous behavioral … predictions can be obtained, even in the face of dynamic inconsistency, by taking the individual's preferences over decision trees … assumption about the way individuals resolve conflicts between preferences at different decision points. The main result employs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691151
Economists often estimate a subset of their model parameters outside the model and let the decision-makers inside the … misspecification of the decision problem, and leads to post-decision disappointment. We develop a framework to explore, evaluate, and … optimize decision rules that explicitly account for the uncertainty in the first step estimation using statistical decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594943
the model’s implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision problem … to misspecification, and ultimately leads to post-decision disappointment. Using statistical decision theory, we develop … a framework to explore, evaluate, and optimize robust decision rules that explicitly account for estimation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487318