Tong, Jordan; Feiler, Daniel; Ivantsova, Anastasia - 2017 - [Revised]
We examine a fundamental feature of choice under uncertainty: Overestimating an alternative makes one more likely to … overestimate chosen alternatives even before they make their choice. In four studies, we found that students and managers exhibited … behavior consistent with naivety toward this relationship between estimation error and choice, leaving them overoptimistic …