-sided ambiguity and pure risk. Our results show a significant relationship between individual overconfidence and competence measures …) competence, the perception of feeling knowledgeable or competent in an area and 2) overconfidence, the well documented result … and elicited values of lotteries in a financial decision context. Further, the interaction of overconfidence, competence …

Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous cognitive bias. There is copious evidence of overconfidence being relevant … overconfidence. Cognitive uncertainty represents a decision maker's uncertainty about her action optimality. We present a simple … model of overconfidence based on the concept of cognitive uncertainty. The model relates the concepts theoretically and …

We propose a model of instrumental belief choice under loss aversion. When new information arrives, an agent is … choice context. …

We examine a fundamental feature of choice under uncertainty: Overestimating an alternative makes one more likely to … overestimate chosen alternatives even before they make their choice. In four studies, we found that students and managers exhibited … behavior consistent with naivety toward this relationship between estimation error and choice, leaving them overoptimistic …