Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...

Non sample information is hidden in frequentist statistics in the choice of the hypothesis to be tested and of the confidence level. Explicit treatment of these elements provides the connection between Bayesian and frequentist statistics. A frequentist decision maker starts from a judgmental...

A decision maker tests whether the gradient of the loss function evaluated at a judgmental decision is zero. If the test does not reject, the action is the judgmental decision. If the test rejects, the action sets the gradient equal to the boundary of the rejection region. This statistical...

This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of variance premium --- the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance --- as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our...

I generalize the long-run risks (LRR) model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by incorporating recursive smooth ambiguity aversion preferences from Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2009) and time-varying ambiguity. Relative to the Bansal-Yaron model, the generalized LRR model is as tractable but more flexible...

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) intends to create the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) as a single market, to be completed by 2020. The single market will boost the competition in both ASEAN's internal and external markets, which will spur innovation. Creative innovation will...

This paper offers an ambiguity-based interpretation of variance premium - the difference between risk-neutral and objective expectations of market return variance - as a compounding effect of both belief distortion and variance differential regarding the uncertain economic regimes. Our approach...

Empirical applications of real options models in competitive environments implicitly exploit the optimality of myopic planning. In a seminal paper [Leahy, J.V., 1993. Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: the Optimality of Myopic Behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 1105–1133] shows...

The relationship between uncertainty and economic activity has attracted substantial interest in recent macroeconomics literature. Empirical work has mostly focused on short-run and medium-term effects of uncertainty shocks. However, there are a number of mechanisms that may cause a response of...

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has been proposed as an alternative to expected utility theory to explain irregular behavior by economic agents. CPT comprises two key transformations: one of outcome values and the other of objective probabilities. Risk attitudes are derived from the shapes of...