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This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence … the definition of five fundamental criteria that serve as a basis for our method. Standard risk measures, such as value-at-risk … and expected shortfall, are shown to be robust with respect to minimum divergence scenario aggregation. Various examples …
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independent of duration, simple aggregation will nonetheless lead to the inference that the hazard function is state … ; prospect theory ; aggregation ; consistency …
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functionals of an aggregate risk under dependence uncertainty along with its decision-theoretic implications. To arrive at our … pessimistic risk-averse dual utility but free of dependence uncertainty …
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A continuum of homogeneous rational agents choose between two competing technologies. Agents observe a private signal and sample others' previous choices. Signals have an aggregate component of uncertainty, so aggregate behavior does not necessarily reflect the true state of nature. Nonetheless,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969717
Despite well-known shortcomings as a risk measure, Value-at-Risk (VaR) is still the industry and regulatory standard … for the calculation of risk capital in banking and insurance. This paper is concerned with the numerical estimation of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045618
I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in runoff elections under aggregate uncertainty. I introduce aggregate uncertainty by making candidates unsure of the distribution of voter preferences in the electorate. The set of three candidate equilibria expands and equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921841
We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239562