framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that … greatly amplified when agents have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. We leverage survey recession probability … historical periods in which uncertainty and risk premia were elevated because of news shocks. …

framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that … greatly amplified when agents have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. We leverage survey recession probability … historical periods in which uncertainty and risk premia were elevated because of news shocks …

of model uncertainty. If the degree of model uncertainty becomes more heterogenous, inflation volatility falls due to …We introduce heterogeneity into a monetary policy committee by allowing the degree of model uncertainty to differ … derived. The reason is that inflation, output and the interest rate are convex functions of each member's idiosyncratic degree …

of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the … setting the policy rate, and substitute toward a more forceful response to inflation, is overstated. We find that a notable … response to the unemployment gap is typically beneficial, even if that gap is mismeasured. Even when the dynamics of inflation …

Knightian uncertainty about the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the slope of the Phillips curve. The literature on … optimal robust monetary policy has focused on either imperfect observability of some variables or on parameter uncertainty. We … characterize robust monetary policy analytically under the two types of uncertainty and show that in general they call for a more …

We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation … perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty through the lens of firms' unit (marginal) costs. Using methods grounded in the survey … literature, we find evidence that the concept of "aggregate inflation" as measured through price statistics like the consumer …

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms …. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This …

This paper shows that Livingston Survey measures of unemployment uncertainty are positively correlated with inflation …, that inflation Granger Causes unemployment uncertainty and that shocks to inflation uncertainty or unemployment uncertainty … have similar effects on real GDP growth. This suggests higher unemployment uncertainty is a cost of higher inflation that …

) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment … ex ante "news" or "uncertainty shocks" in real time, and find that this 'news' is closely related to revisions in … forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that …

-sectional distributions of uncertainty and pricing durations are both necessary and sufficient to identify monetary non-neutrality. Finally …