The traditional model of sequential decision making, for instance, in extensive form games, is a tree. Most texts de?ne a tree as a connected directed graph without loops and a distinguished node, called the root. But an abstract graph is not a domain for decision theory. Decision theory...

In criminal cases the task of the judge is to transform the uncertainty about the facts into the certainty of the verdict. In this experiment we examine the relationship between evidence of which the strength is known, subjective probability of guilt and verdict for abstract cases. We look at...

Consider any investor who fears ruin facing any set of investments that satisfy noarbitrage. Before investing, he can purchase information about the state of nature in the form of an information structure. Given his prior, information structure α is more informative than information structure...

Aumann–Serrano (J Polit Econ 116:810–836, <CitationRef CitationID="CR6">2008</CitationRef>) and Foster–Hart (J Polit Econ 117:785–814, <CitationRef CitationID="CR15">2009</CitationRef>) suggest two new riskiness measures, each of which enables one to elicit a complete and objective ranking of gambles according to their riskiness. These riskiness measures were created with a...</citationref></citationref>

Peter P. Wakker has forcefully shown the importance for decision theory of a condition that he called “Cardinal Coordinate Independence” (CCI). Indeed, when the outcome space is rich, he proved that, for continuous weak orders, this condition fully characterizes the Subjective Expected...

The Nobel Prize award to scientists for thier theoretical contribution to analysis of markets with asymmetrical informations has reawakened debates on the behavior and decision-making of economic player under uncertainty. Becouse insurance is an classic example of such a situation, it is used to...

An information transaction entails the purchase of information. Formally, it consists of an information structure together with a price. We develop an index of the appeal of information transactions, which is derived as a dual to the agent’s preferences for information. The index of...

Consider any investor who fears ruin when facing any set of investments that satisfy no-arbitrage. Before investing, he can purchase information about the state of nature in the form of an information structure. Given his prior, information structure $\alpha$ is more informative than information...

Individual valuation of a binary lottery at values less than the lottery’s worst outcome has been designated as the “uncertainty effect”. Our paper aims to explore the boundary conditions of the uncertainty effect by investigating a plausible underlying process and proposing two possible...