In this paper we perform a meta-analysis on empirical estimates of the impact between investment and uncertainty. Since the outcomes of primary studies are largely incomparable with respect to the magnitude of the effect, our analysis focuses on the direction and statistical significance of the...

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses...

A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model where uncertainty is represented by the agent's...

The efficiency of institutions, understood in the sense of constraint optimization, does not make much sense when discussing the New Institutional Economics (NIE), i. e., under conditions in which institutions matter. For such a world one has to use non-optimizing methods to assess the economic...

Throughout their long history, humans have worked hard to tame chance. They adapted to their uncertain physical and social environments by using the method of trial and error. This evolutionary process made humans reason about uncertain facts the way they do. Behavioral economists argue that...

We study the stability of the no-arbitrage property under model uncertainty. We measure model uncertainty with the total variation distance of underlying probability distributions. We show that sufficiently small changes of the underlying probability distribution preserve the no-arbitrage...

The efficiency of institutions, understood in the neoclassical sense, i.e., as the result of constraint optimization of a neoclassical economy is pointless from the perspective of the New Institutional Economics, because the latter assumes incomplete foresight. For such a world one cannot use...

A long tradition suggests a fundamental distinction between situations of risk, where true objective probabilities are known, and unmeasurable uncertainties where no such probabilities are given. This distinction can be captured in a Bayesian model where uncertainty is represented by the agent's...

Most decisions in life are gambles. Should I speed up or slow down as I approach the yellow traffic light ahead? Should I invest in the stock market or in treasury bills? Should I undergo surgery or radiation therapy to treat my tumor? From mundane choices rendered with scarcely a moment's...

Modern strategic decision theory focuses on those actions taken by senior executives (on behalf of the owners) that commit substantial resources, set precedents, and create waves of less important decisions. This chapter explores key behavioral assumptions that dispute the notion that strategic...