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Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous cognitive bias. There is copious evidence of overconfidence being relevant in a diverse set of economic domains. In this paper, we relate the recent concept of cognitive uncertainty with overconfidence. Cognitive uncertainty represents a decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257953
. Using an experiment, I exogenously vary the degree of ambiguity while eliciting measures of likelihood insensitivity and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013163191
We present a striking example of the deconstruction and reconstruction of an anomaly. In line with previous experiments we show in a one-shot setting that the allegedly robust false consensus e¤ect disappears if representative information is readily available. But the effect reappears if a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061502
asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029067
asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012064638
asymmetric updating in this domain. In contrast, in our experiment, belief updating is close to the Bayesian benchmark on average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178991
On average, "young" people underestimate whereas "old" people overestimate their chances to survive into the future. We adopt a Bayesian learning model of ambiguous survival beliefs which replicates these patterns. The model is embedded within a non-expected utility model of life-cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092823
We construct and solve a dynamically inconsistent Choquet expected utility life-cycle model for naive and sophisticated agents, respectively. Pollak (1968) shows that the realized saving behavior of naive and sophisticated agents be- comes identical for a logarithmic period-utility function. As...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110305
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012061600
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484