Shackle was one of the representative critics of probability calculus. His alternative decision theory was … interpretation of Shacklean theory by focusing on the common stage structure of the decision-making. This paper shows that the … characteristics of Shackle-Katzner framework can be explained as: (1) the non-distributive and non-additive ordinal measure of …

probability calculus, which can be of use to analyse both ambiguity and uncertainty. The comparison between Ellsberg and Shackle … of the boundaries of probability theory that is in the same vein of Ellsberg's and Shackle's concern in the years of the … the criteria for decision under uncertainty they put forward. The paper establishes a link between Ellsberg's and Shackle …

This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects’ assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non … and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are … observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a …

defined as attitude toward mean-preserving spreads in probabilities---analogous to the Rothschild-Stiglitz risk attitude … toward mean-preserving spreads in outcomes. The model refines the separations between tastes and beliefs, and between risk …

probability of each future scenario. This method aims to identify optimal strategies applicable across a wide range of situations … by exploring the entire allowable probability space. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by a case study …

This paper demonstrates that well-established biases in decision making under uncertainty can generate poverty traps. A … theoretical framework is developed to demonstrate that: i) probability weighting and ambiguity attitude can lead individuals to …

weak preference ordering. For choice under risk (resp. uncertainty), preferences are assumed to be represented by the … objectively (resp. subjectively) expected value of a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. For choice under risk, this implies … a key independence axiom; under uncertainty, it implies some version of Savage’s sure-thing principle. This chapter …

that the less-plausible hypothesis had positive probability, they ignored this hypothesis when using the hypotheses to make …

This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects' assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non … probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. Violations from the law are … observed for both uncertainty sources, but are more substantial for strategic uncertainty. In particular, we observe a …

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about … measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People with higher levels of imprecision update their beliefs more in …