We assess Africa's prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century the ratio of the...

There have been significant changes in both the fertility rates and fertility perception since 1970s. In this paper, we examine the relationship between government policies towards fertility and the fertility trends. Total fertility rate, defined as the number of children per woman, is used as...

This paper studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in the period 1950ñ 2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. The application of Phillips and Sulís (2007) test to fertility rates provides evidence of convergence in three groups of countries....

This paper studies the dynamics of fertility in 180 countries in the period 1950-2015 and investigates the determinants of the onset of fertility transitions. We find evidence of convergence in three groups of countries, and distinguish the transitioning countries from those not transitioning....

We propose a unified growth model linking technology, education investment across genders, and fertility to explain, for 20th century developing countries: (i) the demographic transition, (ii) the improvement in gender equality in education, and (iii) the transition to sustained growth. The...

This paper surveys publications in the fields of economic history and demography in the ESR since 1969. Numbering sixty in all, they cover a broad chronological and thematic range. Some of these papers never attracted much notice, but stand as useful sources for future historians. A few have...

Fertility in the United States rose from a low of 2.27 children for women born in 1908 to a peak of 3.21 children for women born in 1932. It dropped to a new low of 1.74 children for women born in 1949, before stabilizing for subsequent cohorts. We propose a novel explanation for this...

The world faces growing challenges of aging populations. Asia is no exception with rapidly increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates. To help policy makers address these issues, this paper examines three sociopolicy options: (i) extending the retirement age, (ii) augmenting labor...

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the...

National statistical offices responsible for population projections should regularly evaluate their work. Norway is currently considering changing the way fertility is projected. To establish a solid basis for deciding the way forward, this paper describes the different ways various European...