This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections till 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines...

Our ability to forecast degrades rapidly the further out we predict. Even if we do manage to accurately forecast an event, the magnitude and consequences of that event usually astonish us. On the rare occasion where we manage to accurately forecast the event, its magnitude and consequences, our...