We show that the slight possibility of a macroeconomic disaster of moderate magnitude can explain important features across credit, option, and equity markets. Our consumption-based equilibrium model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit term...

This paper examines the joint time series of the S&P500 index and its options with a two-factor Hawkes jump-diffusion model that captures jump propagation (i.e., the phenomenon in which the strike of one jump substantially raises the probability for more to follow). The propagation effect...

We embed systematic default, pro-cyclical recovery rates and habit persistence into a model with a slight possibility of a macroeconomic disaster of reasonable magnitude. We derive analytical solutions for defaultable bond prices and show that a single set of structural parameters calibrated to...