Prediction market prices are often used as estimates of the probability of outcomes in future elections and referendums. I argue that this practice is often flawed, and I develop a model that empiricists can use to partially identify probabilities from prediction market prices. In the special...

Cross-market deviations in equity put option prices and credit default swap spreads are temporal and revert to their usual level shortly after they occur, on average within about one week. The process of reversion involves predictable and economically significant changes also in the equity...

This chapter explains how the main types of credit derivatives work and how they are valued. Central to the valuation of credit derivatives is an estimation of the probability that reference entities will default. The chapter discusses both the risk-neutral probabilities of default implied from...

Futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange are the most liquid instruments for trading crude oil, which is the world’s most actively traded physical commodity. Under normal market conditions, traders can easily find counterparties for their trades, resulting in an efficient market...

Effective risk management is an important aspect of farming. Risk management involves choosing among alternatives that reduce the financial effects of the uncertainties of weather, yields, prices, government policies, and other factors that can cause wide swings in farm income. To deal with...

We consider the problems of derivative pricing and inference when the stochastic discount factor has an exponential-affine form and the geometric return of the underlying asset has a dynamics characterized by a mixture of conditionally Normal processes. We consider both the static case in which...