While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient...

Prediction market prices are often used as estimates of the probability of outcomes in future elections and referendums. I argue that this practice is often flawed, and I develop a model that empiricists can use to partially identify probabilities from prediction market prices. In the special...

Cross-market deviations in equity put option prices and credit default swap spreads are temporal and revert to their usual level shortly after they occur, on average within about one week. The process of reversion involves predictable and economically significant changes also in the equity...

Effective risk management is an important aspect of farming. Risk management involves choosing among alternatives that reduce the financial effects of the uncertainties of weather, yields, prices, government policies, and other factors that can cause wide swings in farm income. To deal with...

The Global Financial Crisis had a severe impact on the commodity markets on top of the well-known effects on the worldwide economy. Not only the demand for commodities decreased severely thereby hurting the creditworthiness of participants in the wholesale commodity markets, but also the...

New regulatory data reveal extensive price discrimination against non-financialclients in the FX derivatives market. The client at the 90th percentile pays aneffective spread of 0.5%, while the bottom quarter incur transaction costs of lessthan 0.02%. Consistent with models of search frictions...

In an arbitrage-free economy with non-zero bid-ask spreads the existence of payoffs whose price is lower than the price of a dominated payoff cannot be discarded in general. However, when the former price corresponds to trivial portfolios which involve buying or selling one unit of the basis...

Spanish Abstract: Los mercados de contratos futuros tienen como fortaleza la eliminación del riesgo de contraparte, para esto es importante el nivel de garantías que las cámaras de riesgo exigen a los participantes del mercado. Estas garantías deben cubrir las variaciones extremas del precio...

New regulatory data reveal extensive discriminatory pricing in the foreign exchange derivatives market, in which dealer-banks and their non-financial clients trade over-the-counter. After controlling for contract characteristics, dealer fixed effects, and market conditions, we find that the...

Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) has been one of the "hot topics" in the financial industry since 2009. There have been several papers on the subject and the topic has been widely discussed in all banking conferences around the world. However, often, the fundamentals of this topic have been...