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Was the U.S. Great Depression a Credit Boom Gone Wrong?
Postel-Vinay, Natacha - 2020
The US Great Depression was preceded by almost a decade of credit growth. This review paper suggests that the 1920s credit boom went through two phases: one, up to around 1927, when credit grew in concert with money; another one, from around 1928 to 1929, when credit grew faster than money....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848726
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Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework
Thiem, Christopher - 2017
volatility as well as the U.S. economy. We find that - even after accounting for these factors - oil price uncertainty still has … confirms these results. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge …Dieser Beitrag untersucht den Einfluss von Ölpreisunsicherheit auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität der USA mit Hilfe eines VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
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Business History > Piketty
Wright, Robert E. - 2015
Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century has attracted more attention than it perhaps deserves given that its main empirical claim, that wealth inequality is bound to occur in "capitalist" economies because the rate of return r is greater than the rate of economic growth g (r g), is not rigorously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137599
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Buried in the vaults of central banks : monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression
Karau, Sören - 2020 - This draft: October 2020
I study whether monetary gold hoarding was the main cause of the Great Depression in a structural VAR analysis. The notion that monetary forces played an important role in bringing about the depression is well established in the narrative literature, but has more recently met some skepticism by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012405992
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Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk
Yao, Yudong; Wang, Yan - 2005
Using Growth at Risk as a measure of downside growth risk, the authors find that higher perceived levels of downside growth risk seem to be negatively associated with long-term growth. Output collapses and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically and have grave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014124889
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Estimating large-scale factor models for economic activity in Germany: Do they outperform simpler models?
Dreger, Christian; Schumacher, Christian - 2002
This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295521
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Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets
Schumacher, Christian - 2005
This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295769
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Forecasting German GDP Using Alternative Factor Models Based on Large Datasets
Schumacher, Christian - 2008
This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the German economy. One model extracts factors by static principal components analysis; the second model is based on dynamic principal components obtained using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773410
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Forecasting German GDP Using Alternative Factor Models Based on Large Datasets
Schumacher, Christian - 2016
This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991223
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Estimating Large-Scale Factor Models for Economic Activity In Germany : Do They Outperform Simpler Models?
Schumacher, Christian; Dreger, Christian - 2003
This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014107530