We apply the asymmetric ARDL model advanced by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2009) to the analysis of the patterns of pass-through from policy-controlled interest rates to a variety of longer-term rates in the U.S. and Germany. Our results reveal three main phenomena. Firstly, while the e®ect...

We apply the asymmetric ARDL model advanced by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2009) to the analysis of the patterns of pass-through from policy-controlled interest rates to a variety of longer-term rates in the U.S. and Germany. Our results reveal three main phenomena. Firstly, while the effect...

The goal of this paper is to develop a test for the relative importance of the time-varying term premium and the peso-problem for rejection of the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS). Our reasoning is based on a term structure model that allows for both phenomena simultaneously....

The European Central Bank (ECB) strives to maintain inflation at a 2% target rate, yet the Euro area's diverse economies pose challenges to achieving this goal with a single nominal interest rate. Effective monetary policy transmission hinges on synchronizing the Natural Rate of Interest (NRI)...

Using a simple method, based on forward interest spreads, we analyse the recent movements in the 10-year yield differentials between three currencies (Italian lira; Spanish peseta; Swedish krona) and the DM in order to gauge the extent to which the reduction in these differentials was due to...

We study the yields in the German treasury bills market. We take a detailed look at the yield banks require to buy treasury bills in the primary market, and we also examine the yield households and nonbank firms demand to buy these bills in the secondary market. We use data from real world...

In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...

Taking a cue from the assertion that “loose lips sink markets” (Carmassi and Micossi, 2010), this paper investigates to what extent and why political communication has had an impact on the sovereign bond spreads of selected euro area countries over the German Bund. Drawing on 25,000 news...

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007)....

The paper analyses the performance of simple interest rate rules which feature a response to noisy observations of inflation, output and money growth. The analysis is based on a small empirical model of the hybrid New Keynesian type which has been estimated on euro area data by Stracca (2007)....