Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese...

This paper analyses the impact of family background, gender and cohort on educational attainment in France and Germany, relying on a theoretical model imbedded in the human capital theory. In a second step, the educational process is decomposed into school and post-school achievement. The same...

This paper aims at formulating a theoretical model of educational attainment which is directly implementable empirically. The conceptual frame-work relies on the human capital theory, where individuals weigh the costs and the returns of education to decide on the optimal amount of education they...

We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, wie sich Angebots-, Nachfrage- und geldpolitische Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten auf Deutschland übertragen. Dabei wird ein so genanntes factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) auf einen neu zusammengestellten Datensatz mit mehr als 200...

The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in...

The increasing utilization of renewable energy sources (RES) is a major energy policy strategy in many countries worldwide. Germany is a forerunner in the deployment of RES and has ambitious goals for the future. The support and use of renewables affects the economy: It creates business...

Der starke Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien führt in Deutschland zu Nachfrageimpulsen und verringert die Einfuhr konventioneller Brennstoffe. Allerdings sind mit dem Ausbau auch gegenläufige Substitutions- und Kosteneffekte verbunden, die für sich genommen die Konsummöglichkeiten vermindern...

The paper presents the German block of the ESCB multi-country model. It builds on previous modelling work on the Area Wide Model and other country blocks of the ESCB multicountry-model. Whilst being analogous to these models in following a common modelling approach and the same theoretical...

Although the economic effects of CO2 abatement depend substantially on the degree to which capital and labor can substitute for energy, the issue of energy-capital-labor substitution is surrounded by considerable uncertainty. In this paper we use econometrically estimated, sectorally...