the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts … forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. …

the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts … forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. …

implement appropriate reform measures, adequate forecasts of the future population structure, specifically in pay …

This paper presents a new facet of the regional forecasts of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). For the … Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR). Overall, the forecasts for 2022 suggest a return to the regional …

leads to improvement in accuracy of one-step ahead forecasts of GDP growth compared to those obtained by the benchmark model …. Second, the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts obtained with models augmented with the RWI is comparable to that of models … Switzerland. Third, we show that the RWI-based forecasts are more accurate than the consensus forecasts (published by Consensus …

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are … of forecasters. The dispersion of forecasts correlates positively with the volatility of macroeconomic variables. This …