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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts … forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324268
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Do forecasters inform or reassure? Evaluation of the German real-time data
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts … forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naïve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285824
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Text data rule - don't they? : a study on the (additional) information of Handelsblatt data for nowcasting German GDP in comparison to established economic indicators
Shrub, Yuliya; Rieger, Jonas; Müller, Henrik; Jentsch, … - 2022
The prompt availability of information on the current state of the economy in real-time is required for prediction purposes and crucial for timely policy adjustment and economic decision-making. While important macroeconomic indicators are reported only quarterly and also published with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361278
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Lasso-type and heuristic strategies in model selection and forecasting
Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter - 2012
Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802
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On mean reversion in real interest rates: An application of threshold cointegration
Jumah, Adusei; Kunst, Robert M. - 2002
Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292774
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Entwicklung des integrierten Mikrosimulationsmodells EITDsim
Struch, Georg - 2012
Dieser Beitrag dokumentiert den Aufbau des Mikrosimulationsmodells EITDsim. EITDsim kann zur empirischen (ex ante) Evaluation von steuer- und finanzpolitischen Fragestellungen, insbesondere von (potentiellen) Steuerreformen, verwendet werden. Dafür kombiniert EITDsim auf Basis des erweiterten...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294742
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Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany
Antzoulatos, Angelos A.; Wilfling, Bernd - 2003
identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD's forecasts for Germany's consumption and GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295325
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Entwicklung eines Modells zur Projektion des Wirtschaftswachstums und der langfristigen Nachfrage nach Produktionsfaktoren in Deutschland unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des info...
Danckwerts, Rudolf-Ferdinand; Grossmann, Wolf Dieter; … - 2003
Es wird das Konzept für ein makroökonomisches Strukturmodell mit integriertem Innovationsprozesskern zur Analyse und Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland vorgestellt. Das geplante Modell soll explizit die Auswirkungen des immer bedeutsamer werdenden IuK-technologischen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295370
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Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany
Döpke, Jörg - 2004
considerably from their counterparts based on the most recent data. Moreover, they are not rational forecasts of the final series …. The consequences of using real-time data for inflation forecasts, the dynamic interaction of output gaps and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295638
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Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns
Raunig, Burkhard; de Raaij, Gabriela - 2002
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role … application to in- and out-of-sample one-step-ahead density forecasts of daily returns on the S&P 500, DAX and ATX stock market … provide some evidence that GARCH-t models provide good density forecasts. The results further suggest that extensions of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295725