We develop a multivariate generalization of the Markov-switching GARCH model introduced by Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella (2004b) and derive its fourth-moment structure. An application to international stock markets illustrates the relevance of accounting for volatility regimes from both a...

The paper illustrates and evaluates a Kalman filtering method for forecasting German real GDP at monthly intervals. German real GDP is produced at quarterly intervals but analysts and decision makers often want monthly GDP forecasts. Quarterly GDP could be regressed on monthly indicators, which...

Regelmäßige Veröffentlichungen makroökonomischer Kennzahlen, die von den Erwartungen der Marktteilnehmer abweichen, wirken sich in rund zwei Drittel der Fälle sofort auf den deutschen Aktienmarkt aus. Vor allem Daten zu Investitionen, Zahlen über die realwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten oder...

Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated, to determine...